Excel spreadsheet was developed to assist hospitals and communities
in their pandemic influenza planning efforts. The predictions are
based upon two types of scenarios:
- A severe outbreak is modeled after the 1918-1919
Spanish Influenza pandemic.
- A moderate outbreak is modeled after
the milder 1957-58 and 1968-1969 pandemics.
It has been previously noted that influenza pandemics tend to come
in two waves, the initial (larger) wave, and a second wave several
months later. These scenarios break their predictions into the two
waves as well as providing information by county.
The scenarios were developed using modeling software provided by
the federal government.